Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Look Out Below

Markets had a tantalizing flirtation with recovery until the news that a crumbling part of Buckingham Palace missed crowning Princess Anne. It appears that the Queen, and retinue, have run through one third of their financial reserves in the last ten years (23 million pounds down from 32 million pounds) because an annual allowance of 8 million pounds from the Treasury is insufficient (69 pence per citizen).

The stipend is up for renewal in 2010 by which time the till may run dry. A thought that troubles markets more than federally insured financial institutions re insuring trillions of dollars of risk with offshore hedge funds operated by fellows named Ivan from a bungalow in the Caymans.

More interesting is the Reserve Bank of India bent on tarnishing its image as the banker of refuge. Mark to expectation accounting has been accepted by the US for financial institutions to account for federal largess received. Simply, put a deal on the books, project what is to be earned for its duration provided the counterpart pays, discount the future cash flows for the next twenty years, and
book the income today.

India feels slighted in not having to engage in these accounting gymnastics, so the RBI has begun debate on permitting the use of Credit Default Swaps in the country. A good idea for the buyers of insurance in the event that an issuer of a bond defaults, but an exercise in black hole creation for the unregulated sellers of the insurance that will pocket premiums and advise claimants to take a long walk
off a short pier when the bell tolls, and who, presumably, are lobbying the RBI for the opportunity.

United Spirits is in the liquor business and airline business. Shawl Wallace owns 11%of US, and US owns 31% of SW. SW sold its 11% of US in the open market for $190 million, which means that US received $60 million, while retaining its SW stake. US had borrowed $620 million to buy Whyte & Mackay (scotch), has repaid $150 million, owes $470 million, and will use the $60 million toward the $470 million.

All of which is being funded by the Airport Authority of India and the oil marketing companies because the US airline (Kingfisher) owes both over $60 million which it pays through bounced checks.

AAI is to be congratulated for its expansion in the banking business

Monday, June 29, 2009

Liars Poker

A big shot is a lot of little shots that keep shooting

Are the Chinese bluffing?

Iron ore contracts are coming up for renewal. The Chinese account for one half the world demand and negotiate with three major suppliers (miners). Prices are up from the lows of the fall because the miners settled deals with the Japanese and the South Koreas before having tea with the Chinese. The Chinese loaded up on iron ore inventories in the first quarter of 09, 75 million tonnes from 45 million tonnes, to tide over if negotiations were less than congenial.

This Chinese saving for a rainy day led to a tripling in shipping rates (baltic dry index from 1400 to 4200), a twenty per cent increase in the Australian Dollar (one of the larger suppliers) and doubling in value of stock exhanges from Shanghai to Mumbai.

Alas the Chinese inventory figures are reported by their Customs Department two months in arrears (February most recent) which leaves the best guess, best evidence, the daily reported direction of shipping rates which have cooled to 3600 hovering near a twenty day average.
The diviners of chart prices believe that there is one more leg up in shipping rates, something to do with a full moon, new moon, and no moon, but they are remarkably accurate. Were this so then markets, and the miners, are calling the Chinese bluff.

Indian equities seem to agree. The market have cooled in the last month but the correction (decline) in prices has been less than expected. As a matter of full disclosure the author had bet against India stock prices the last two weeks and covered those position with a modest profit on 26 June.

There is the small matter of the Indian government budget that will be announced on 6 July. The Finance Minister will say that Indian GDP is growing, it is, that the government needs to borrow more money than expected, which in India is itself an expectation, but that there is a plan that presumably will not dwell impolitely on the oil and fertilizer subsidies that do not appear on the government's balance sheet.

Despite this looming shadow of financial reality India equity markets refuse to die. There is much to look forward to. $500 billion in infrastructure spending, a defence budget that will generate $25 billion in ofset requirements (domestic production capability) in the next five
years, and the political will to disinvest (sell shares) in Public Sector Undertakings (government companies).

The latter being the most important because raising money by selling shares is a gift in the closed financial world of government debts and deficits. The Indian Governmen is at once the largest shareholder (30% of the Indian market cap, $300 billion) and potential share issuer.
Naturally a seller of shares prefers higher prices, especially when unloading equity in a national air carrier that loses a buck for every four bucks in revenue.

Though the author enjoys the ski slope of price correction, it appears that the universe of real midcap Indian companies ready for a +20=50% run

manana


WWIL DISHTV SPICEJET KFA GVKPIL HOTELEELA IFCI

Friday, June 26, 2009

Boondoggle

What was the band on the Titanic playing?

WASHINGTON: The US Senate has unanimously passed the Kerry-Lugar Bill, which triples America's civilian assistance to Pakistan to $7.5 billion in
the next five years and advocates an equal amount for another five years -- $15 billion in 10 years.

Unlike the House version of the bill, which was voted against by the Republican members, the Kerry-Lugar Bill, which is called Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act (S962), received bi-partisan support from Senators and is supported by the Obama administration.

The Obama administration had expressed its reservations over the House version of the bill -- the Pakistan Enduring Assistance and Cooperation Enhancement Act of 2009 (HR 1886), which imposes strict conditions on Pakistan. HR 1886 was passed by the House on June 11.

Since there are differences in the two bills -- HR 1886 and S962 -- the House of Representatives and the Senate would now hold a conference to arrive at a consensus to merge the two documents into one, before it is sent to the US president for signing it into law.

"I look forward to working with our House colleagues to get this important bill to the White House for the President's signature," said Senator John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, after the passage of the bill.

"This legislation marks an important step toward sustained economic and political cooperation with Pakistan, while establishing mechanisms to help ensure that funds are spent efficiently," Senator Richard Lugar, Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said.

Lugar said the bill subjects US security assistance to a certification that Pakistani government is using the money for its intended purpose -- to combat the Taliban and al-Qaida.

"The bill also calls for tangible progress in governance, including an independent judiciary, greater accountability by the central government, respect for human rights, and civilian control of the levers of power, including the military and the intelligence agencies," he said.

"Finally, it includes multiple reporting requirements, certifications, and audit mechanisms to ensure that the administration is implementing a sound strategy and using funds effectively," Lugar said.

A joint statement by Kerry and Lugar, said one of the key provisions of the bill on Pakistan is that it delinks military from non-military aid.

No Juice

$40 million for statutes + a new Hawker parkes at IGI + no water, no power for 12 hours a day in UP

NEW DELHI: Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati is all set to unveil 40 statues — including six of her own — on July 3, along with the Kanshi Ram
Memorial and the Gautam Buddhasthals, which has cost the state exchequer dear.

According to the reply of an RTI filed in the Lucknow Development Authority (LDA), statues of Mayawati and Kanshi Ram at various places in Lucknow and erected by LDA, cost Rs 6.68 crore. And, the 60 marble elephants at the Ambedkar memorial cost Rs 52 crore, according to the reply. If the figures in the Uttar Pradesh budget are anything to go by, this is just the tip of the iceberg.

The Uttar Pradesh culture department's budget for 2009-10 shows that in 2008-09, the department had allocated more than Rs 194 crore for building statues of "great leaders" — the entire amount was spent.

Cricket

BPCL (jet fuel) sued Kingfisher Airlines (KFA)for $60 million in past dues. Indian Oil Corp cashed KFA's bank guarantee of $10 million after KFA bounced a post dated cheque. AAI (Airport Authority of India) wants KFA to pay cash for landing and parking planes because KFA owes AAI $30 million, which is $10 million more than the bank guarantee. The KFA promoters borrowing money from Indian banks against a personal guarantee of $400 million which is worth less than the paper it is written on. Air India wants employees to take 2 years leave without pay or allowance but will continue to underwrites its cricket team.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Deflation

Deflation

Halliburton FCPA fines paid exceed $500 million. Iraqi oil fields, second largest reserves in the world, are being auctioned for the first time since 1972. India and the US have wed a nuclear future. The Russians have lost their monopoly on the Indian defence market.

Looks like the publisher got a good deal

Washington DC: Former US vice president Dick Cheney has signed a deal with an imprint of Simon & Schuster to write his memoir. Mary Matalin, his close friend and adviser, is editor in chief of Threshold Editions, which will publish the book.

The memoir is scheduled for release in the spring of 2011 and will cover his time in four presidential administrations and as chief executive officer of the oilfield services provider at Halliburton Co. Cheney will reportedly be paid about $2 million for the book.

Specious Specie

The USG will take specie in AIG units and count that as partial repayment of cash relief extended in the expectation that the businesses will be run well enough to attract buyers at higher prices in the future.

Those buyers will materialize through an IPO, public offering, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank to arrange, in which the SEC (USG agency) has an obligation to protect the investing public from buying specious specie and the USG will have first right on the proceeds of the offer.

Better yet would be an IPO in Japan, where one of the AIG units receives half of its revenue, and, presumably, the conflicted SEC would be less so

Fire in the hole


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The federal government has agreed to accept $25 billion of preferred stock in two American International Group Inc (AIG.N) businesses as partial repayment of debt, the company said on Thursday.

The agreement will reduce AIG's debt of about $40 billion under a Federal Reserve Bank of New York credit facility, but it will still be a while before taxpayers get any cash back for their bailout of the insurer.

Since its near-collapse last September, U.S. taxpayers have committed up to about $180 billion to rescue AIG, including the loan under the credit facility and a $40 billion equity injection.

AIG also said the agreement positions the two businesses, American International Assurance Co Ltd (AIA) and American Life Insurance Co (Alico), for initial public offerings, depending on market conditions.

AIG has already begun the process for an IPO of AIA early next year, selecting Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE) as global coordinators for the offering.

The pact on AIA and Alico follows an agreement AIG reached with the government in March. At that time, the company said the preferred stock in the two units would reduce its balance under the credit facility by up to $26 billion.

The embattled insurer said on Thursday it will put the equity of the units into special purpose vehicles, and the New York Fed will receive preferred stakes of $16 billion in AIA and $9 billion in Alico.

The New York Fed, in a separate statement, said the agreement will help AIG repay taxpayers and restructure. The AIA and Alico transactions are expected to close in the second half of 2009, pending regulatory approvals.

Alico operates in more than 50 countries but generates more than half its revenue in Japan.

AIG lost more than $99 billion in 2008 and has received a series of government bailouts.

The company has found it more difficult to sell assets for good prices because prospective buyers know it needs to dismantle itself to help repay taxpayers.

Last year AIG tried to sell AIA privately for as much to $20 billion but failed to find a buyer.

Lalitha

Revenue department objects to foreign loans routed through Mallya's mother's firm.

The department of revenue in the finance ministry has raised objections to an application by United Breweries (Holdings) Ltd (UBHL) seeking approval for raising Rs 708 crore by issuing fully convertible equity warrants to FirStart Inc, a company owned by UB group promoter Vijay Mallya’s mother, Lalitha, and headquartered in the British Virgin Islands.

The approval is being sought “ex post-facto”, meaning the deal has been partially concluded.

UBHL plans to use the money from FirStart to invest in various UB Group ventures — which includes Kingfisher Airlines (in which it owns 32.48 per cent), McDowell Holdings (36.17 per cent), Kingfisher Finvest and UB Infrastructure Projects Ltd (both wholly-owned) and UB Electronics (96.25 per cent).

The revenue department rejected the proposal on three grounds. First, it contends that the foreign direct investment (FDI) in this proposal is primarily a loan given by Nexgen Capital Ltd and Standard Chartered Bank and is being routed through FirStart Inc as an investment in UBHL and, therefore, is not strictly FDI.

Second, Vijay Mallya has extended his India-based funds as a guarantee for the Standard Chartered and Nexgen Capital loans. The department of revenue has argued that if FirStart defaults, the guarantor — in this case Mallya — would have to pay money from funds in India which implies that funds could flow out of the country.

Third, the department has said Mallya’s net worth is less than the amount for which he has given the guarantee and the reason for the gap is not explained.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Collections

25 June

The GOI expects to collect $71 billion in income related taxes for 2008-2009, out of a total expected collection of $137 billion.

The LIC (Life Insurance Corporation of India) collected $30 billion worth of premium in the same period, with $10 billion being initial premium payments. LIC intends to invest $10 billion in Indian equities this year up from $8 billion last year.

Maybe LIC should advise the GOI on tax collections

Launched

Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Sea Launch Files Chapter 11
Long Beach-based Sea Launch, which was a provider of ocean-based launch services to the commercial satellite industry, said this week that it has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy. According to the firm, it had assets of between $100M and $500M, and liabilities of between $500M and $1 billion. The firm said it would continue all of its normal business operations, using existing cash and possibly tapping Debtor in Possession financing if necessary. Sea Launch is backed by Boeing, as well as Russian, Norwegian, and Ukrainian firms.
http://www.sea-launch.com/

Raining Frogs

25 june 2005


Frogs wed in Nagpur to bring rain. Air India loses one rupee for every 4 rupees of revenue. Kingfisher hedges fuel and operational costs by not paying for either, except for the ubiquitous red army.

Paramount buys 20 Airbus aircraft below the price of Chinese manufacture. France will partner the next Civil Aviation Airshow.

Jet pilots sue DGCA and Jet to avoid serving their notice period. A Boeing pilot contractor sues Air India in the US claiming his Civil Rights were violated. The Federal Judge summons Air India, which apparently is the 52d State.

The USG will spend $8 billion in Pakistan. The first $11 billion spent in FATA is unacounted for but did resettle the Taliban in Islamabad.

The Pakistani Rupee has declined 30% against the INR in five years. Bravehearts should sell INR (48) and buy PKR (78) (1.62) in an Obama spread with a target of INR (45) PKR (60) (1.33) + 18%. Otherwise vote Republican next election

Out of Africa

Moscow's ties with former client states came to a sudden halt with the Soviet collapse but the Kremlin has now emphasised its wish to revive relationships in Africa, rich in oil, gas, diamonds, metals and uranium.

Russian energy giant Gazprom International immediately unveiled plans to build a possible first Trans-Saharan gas pipeline linking vast reserves in Nigeria to Europe, its chief Boris Ivanov said.

Hiking

Sanford's staff at first said the governor was hiking the Appalachian Trail, but then retracted that statement, provoking a media frenzy that culminated in Wednesday's bizarre press conference. The governor spent much of his opening remarks offering apologies -- to his wife and four children, his friends, supporters and voters from South Carolina -- before announcing his adultery.

Monsoon Madness

farmers in the western city of Nagpur organised a wedding of two frogs to please the rain gods.

When El Nino, a weather condition marked by warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, hits the monsoon it can cause a lack of rains and even drought.

The farm sector accounts for nearly 17 percent of India’s gross domestic product and provides a livelihood for most of the 1.1 billion population.

Robust monsoon rains often leads to bumper harvests, which in turn raises farm incomes and increases demand for goods ranging from television to cars and lends support to factory output.

Poor monsoon rains could dent rural demand, hurt corporate profitability and undermine sentiment in financial markets.