Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Suspended Animation

This year the Indian and US equity markets tracked tick for tick until May. Since then US markets have declined by 5% while Indian market are up by 15%. Foreign investors are buying in India while domestic investors (insurance companies, banks, mutual funds) are selling. The RBI is raising interest rates and is concerned about assets prices with unusual certainty. Government owned companies are lined up at the trough to sell shares so the Government can balance the books without quietly asking the World Bank for more money.

The animation will not suspend indefinitely

Ratings

The Chinese have ceremoniously downgraded US government debt from AAA to AA something. It is not clear which credit rating matrix was employed but at the very least consideration of the dollar as the reserve currency and medium for oil purchases seemed irrelevant to the calculation.

The Chinese, though, have increased the purchase of US agency debt (fannie and freddie) to keep the US homeowners in their homes, leveraged, and willing to buy cheap Chinese stuff at Walmart. The Chinese had to because the Fed is rolling over maturing Agency payouts into Treasuries.

The Chinese downgrade, though viscerally pleasing, has no practical effect on global capital markets in 2010 but foreshadows say 2030 when the Chinese exchange dollar reserves for Martian development rights

Paper Mache

The belief that FBP converts would trace above the .72 conversion price and on merits above 1.00 to meet nyse listing requirements was windswept yesterday in Miami.

The Board voted to crush the par value of common shares from 1.00 to .10, expand common shares from 750 mm to 2 billion, and restate the corporate articles to effect a reverse stock split to meet the 1.00 nyse requirement

USG remains the majority shareholder and entry at .5 is 40% underwater at .3. Double up?


First BanCorp Announces Results of Special Stockholder’s Meeting - Business Wire - SunHerald.com

In the Still of the Night


It appears that money center banks crept away in broad daylight with the public trust and the Federal Reserve refuses to identify who got what.

A delectable tale continues

Another Court Rules Against Federal Reserve Silence -- Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Unusually Uncertain

The Fed Chairman indicated that the pace of economic growth was "unusually uncertain."

But with decided certainty the Fed has made permanent a floor of $2.33 trillion in its balance sheet up from $878 billion at the end of 2007.

This freshly printed $1.5 trillion will be rolled over into US Treasury Bonds by reinvesting the principal received from US agency (fannie mae, freddie mac) bonds.






Fed Reverses Exit Plans, Sets $2 Trillion Floor for Holdings - Bloomberg

Rollover

Federal Open Market Committee's Aug. 10 Statement on Economy: Full Text - Bloomberg

Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at the current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. (1) The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

No Money In the Hills

Your Money - The Coming Class War Over Public Pensions - NYTimes.com

Public pension funds need to achieve a return of at least 8.25% per annum to meet obligations.


Sunday, August 8, 2010

Fannie at 40 cents?

Fair Game - Freddie, Fannie and the Third Rail of Housing Policy - NYTimes.com

Buy it at 40 cents on the dollar with the USG as 80% shareholding partner?

$435 million market cap

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Run on the Fed


Alan Greenspan is perched on the edge of his keyboard advising that budget deficits are bad but budget surpluses are worse because they render the Fed impotent.

The Chairman fears a run on US Government Bonds when the medicare bill comes due on a low tax base. Raising taxes, repealing old accommodations, in a recession seems questionable.

But these taxes would be borne by those who can afford them: the taxpayers who own $3 trillion worth of US real estate without a mortgage.

The Chairman may have struck an efficient solution to funding future deficits without having to declare the Yuan a reserve currency


Monday, August 2, 2010

Slippery

So ADAG (Anil Ambani) borrowed money in London (External Commercial Borrowing, ECB) through UBS. The money made its way into Pluri London accounts, presumably legally.

Hythe buys a basket of Indian stocks including RNRL and Reliance Infra through a Participatory Note (PN). Hythe does not own the shares but is credited the increase or decrease in value of the shares through the PN in London. Barclays buys the shares in India to create the PN for Hythe.

Hythe sells the PN to Pluri

The RBI wants to know what happened to the proceeds of the ECB which, pray tell, certainly did not return to India illegally. Barclays, UBS, and SocGen (yes, the French) have been admonished by the RBI for aiding the goose.

ADAG claims that Pluri siphoned the funds from ADAG in the bedroom with the candlestick

SEBI, the Indian regulator, has summoned all who ignored the June 7 show cause notices

black gold

$WTIC: Gallery View - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com

oil 80 t1 91 t2 100

Lack of subsidy hits oil marketing firms | TradingMarkets.com


India imports capital to pay the oil bill. The numbers are about even with oil under 80. Otherwise the RBI will be long lots of oil IOU's

Lack of subsidy hits oil marketing firms | TradingMarkets.com


SC asks HCs not to interfere with debt recovery proceedings-Finance-Economy-News-The Economic Times

SC asks HCs not to interfere with debt recovery proceedings-Finance-Economy-News-The Economic Times

A guarantor of a loan invoked Article 226 of the Indian Constitution to avoid having pledged property seized after default under the loan and stayed the proceedings with a socialist argument. The Supreme Court gently suggested that High Courts should respect the rights of secured creditors and not interfere with recovery proceedings until complete.



In this case, the Union Bank had extended a term loan of `22,50,000 to Pawan Color Lab in November 2004. Satyawati Tondon had furnished a guarantee for repayment of the loan and mortgaged her property situated in Allahabad in UP by deposit of title deeds. After one year and six months, the bank sent a letter to the company and the guarantor pointing out that repayment of loan was highly irregular. It issued notices to both the borrower and the guarantor under section 13(4) of the SARFAESI Act.

Faced with the imminent threat of losing her mortgaged property, Ms Tondon challenged the decision of the bank.

Turning down the plea of the bank that the alternative remedy was available to the petitioner under section 17 of the SARFAESI Act, the high court passed the order restraining the lender from taking action. The order was challenged by the bank in the Supreme Court.

Ruling in favour of the bank’s plea, the apex court said the high court order had the effect of defeating the very object of the legislation enacted by Parliament for ensuring that there are no unwarranted impediments in the recovery of the debts due to banks, financial institutions and secured creditors.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

15c2-12

The SEC has a notice that requires issuers of municipal bonds to disclose "material" events.


The definition of "material" is left to the discretion of the issuer. Issuers have drawn down on bond insurance to meet principal and interest payments when property tax payments have been late.

Technically this "default" has not been considered "material" because the issuers view the draw on bond insurance as a temporary bridge loan. The issuers have repaid the insurers within 90 days but have not disclosed the use of insurance to investors through SEC filings.

The SEC has modified the disclosure language to require material event notices for "all unscheduled draws on credit enhancement facilities reflecting financial difficulties". The new disclosure requirement takes effect in December.

The modification is a distinction without a difference because the determination of "financial difficulties" is a bomb blast away from required disclosure.

Berkshire has written 90% less bond insurance year over year because the capital commitment does not justify the risk, unless it becomes clear that the federal government stands behind municipal debt.



Bullets in a Closed Economy


Foreign governments have lent $2.3 trillion to the US government, $831 billion to the US mortgage market through fannie mae and freddie mac.

The US Federal Reserve is in for $2.4 trillion, $1.2 trillion to the US mortgage market, the balance to the USG plus a $1 trillion dollar swap line for European Banks to harvest bad assets from the Baltic to the Adriatic.

The Federal Reserve Chairman is confused about whether the free money is working to rescue the US mortgage market.

The good news is that 15% of homes in the US are owned so $2.5 trillion of collateral is firmly accounted for.

The bad news is that the negative equity in US real estate markets range from $2-$4 trillion, borrowers owing more than the homes are worth. The mortgage relief program is negligible.

Where is the ammunition for the next round of the rescue?

Coal projects, $600 million US EX IM Guarantee, and the Defence Budget in India, $35 billion over four years?

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Boule

'Human sperm gene 600 million years old' - Hindustan Times

The research has also revealed that Boule is the only gene known to be exclusively required for sperm production --from an insect to a mammal.

"This is the first clear evidence that suggests our ability to produce sperm is very ancient, probably originating at the dawn of animal evolution 600 million years ago. This finding suggests that all animal sperm production likely comes from a common prototype," lead scientist Prof Eugene Xu said.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Covering Shorts in a European Summer


In a universe of $11 trillion in securities lending, stocks loaned to short sellers (sold in the market with an obligation to replace with interest at a future date), the European bank stress tests have created $70 million in financing receipts for lending a basket of 53 months in the past year. The lending income is 8% of total revenue for lending European securities from a universe of less than 1% of the lendable securities. Listed ADRS of note include the Irish Banks plus Lloyds. Shorts will cover.


FT.com / Markets / Insight - Debt shuffling will be a self-defeating exercise

FT.com / Markets / Insight - Debt shuffling will be a self-defeating exercise: "Major economies have over the last decades transferred debt from companies to consumers and finally onto public balance sheets. A huge amount of securities and risk now is held by central banks and governments, which are not designed for such long-term ownership of these assets. There are now no more balance sheets that can be leveraged to support the current levels of debt. The effect of the EFSF is that stronger countries’ balance sheets are being contaminated by the bail-out. Like sharing dirty needles, the risk of infection for all has drastically increased."

India’s Clogged Rail Lines Stall Economic Progress - NYTimes.com

India’s Clogged Rail Lines Stall Economic Progress - NYTimes.com

Premium

Credulity was strained at the RBI upon examination of an investment by Japanese Tobacco in its Indian joint venture. The JV is equal with the Indian shareholder and the partners needed to induct Japanese investment to cover operating losses without disturbing the shareholder structure. The Japanese paid 298 for new shares (face value of 1 with a 297 premium) while the Indian partner bellied up to the bar buying the same amount of shares for 1 (face value without the premium), and that 1 was borrowed.


Monday, July 19, 2010

Balance Sheet Shell Games

FT Alphaville � Moody’s has a Monday morning downgrade for Ireland

Ratings agencies should invest in technical writers to decipher financial morse for the masses.

A contingent liability is polite recognition that a bad decision made will be worse than the financial reserve created, or, beware the balance sheet that goes boom in the night.

In Ireland's case the bad decisions made will be borne by the government at a cost of 15% of one years GDP which may go as high as 25%.

The crystallization of contingent liabilities from the banking system, as represented by a series of recapitalization measures and the need to create the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), a government-created special purpose vehicle that is acquiring impaired loans from banks.

Moody’s expects Nama’s recapitalisation outlay to amount to almost €25bn, or 15.3 per cent of Ireland’s 2009 GDP. And while the agency is pretty convinced that the Irish government won’t swallow hefty permanent losses (for some reason it specifies 25 per cent of 2009 GDP)

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Three G

Govt to verify land rights at Posco site

The Forest Land Rights Act prevents acquisition of land by the State if tribal families live on it or other traditional forest dweller (presumably not wildlife) was in possession for the past three generations or had made claims.

POSCO has $10 billion in the balance in its application for forest land conversion.

The environment?

Should be Higher

FIIs return to Street in style, inflow nears Rs 40K-cr-mark-Market News-Stocks-Markets-The Economic Times


The rough equivalence is that $1 billion in foreign equity buying or selling delivers a 1.5% price change in the index.

Last week foreign buying was $1.5 billion while the index rose only .7% or 1/4 the expected 3%.

Domestic sellers are lurking


No demat accounts for Hindu gods-ET Cetera-News By Industry-News-The Economic Times



The Bombay High Court believes that dealing in shares required skills which could not be expected of Hindu deities. In the grand scheme the ruling probably raises more questions than it answers.

It appears that in accordance with Hindu traditions it was customary for rulers to bestow property on deities. The Supreme Court has ruled that only Deities of registered trusts can hold property.

The NDSL is not clear what the approach would be in the event of alleged fraud in the DEMAT of a Deity, and declined to open the accounts.

The court, for the time being, agreed



No demat accounts for Hindu gods-ET Cetera-News By Industry-News-The Economic Times

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Coal in the Hills

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelle-chan/us-taxpayer-funded-bank-u_b_648174.html



Sponsored by India-based Reliance Power, the mine and refinery (called the "Sasan project," named after a nearby village in the state of Madhya Pradesh) would emit more than 26 million tons of carbon dioxide per year -- more than all the direct emissions from Exim Bank's 2009 projects combined. Many additional co-pollutants would also be produced, including lead, arsenic, mercury, smog-causing nitrogen oxide, and acid-rain forming sulfur dioxide.

Three weeks ago, the Exim Bank's board rightly voted to reject this project due to the environmental damage it would cause. But Wisconsin-based Bucyrus, a company that will benefit from the deal, retaliated with a media offensive and major bout of political lobbying. Bucyrus claimed that it would not be able to sell its equipment to the project if Exim failed to provide the project with U.S.-taxpayer-backed loan guarantees. The timing was exquisite. Coincidently, President Obama visited Racine, Wisconsin, for a pre-scheduled town hall meeting the week after the Exim board's vote. If the president wanted to avoid an embarrassing scene, he'd have to strike a deal and backtrack on the Exim decision. Literally hours before Air Force One was scheduled to land in Wisconsin, Exim Bank invited Reliance Energy to resubmit its application.

According to Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle, President Obama's involvement was "absolutely critical" in producing the Bank's flip flop. But the president wasn't the only one involved; Bucyrus CEO Tim Sullivan gave props to Doyle as well as Senators Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold and Representatives Gwen Moore, Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner for pressuring Exim to change its mind.



China Property Market Beginning Collapse That May Hit Banks, Rogoff Says - Bloomberg

China Property Market Beginning Collapse That May Hit Banks, Rogoff Says - Bloomberg

Bank Capital

China’s five largest state-controlled banks have announced plans to raise as much as $54.5 billion of capital by selling bonds and shares after they extended record loans last year to support a government-led stimulus plan.

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., which is in the midst of a $20.1 billion initial public offering in Shanghai and Hong Kong, told investors yesterday that real-estate loans are among the biggest risks facing the industry.

Weaker growth in China, as well as decisions by developed countries to tighten fiscal policy, may slow the global economic recovery, which Rogoff said is unlikely to slide into a so- called double-dip recession.

Rich nations will reduce their primary budget deficits, excluding interest payments, by 1.6 percentage points next year, the most since the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began keeping records in 1970, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists. The budget squeeze will lop 0.9 percentage point off growth in 2011.


US Exim guarantees loan for Reliance's Sasan project

US Exim guarantees loan for Reliance's Sasan project

Responding to green commitment from Reliance Anil Ambani group, the US Exim bank today gave a preliminary approval for $600 million in loan guarantees to the supplier to Rs 20,000 crore power project at Sasan in Madhya Pradesh.

The proposed estimated Rs 2,800 crore loan guarantee will support the sale and export by US firm Bucyrus International. The approval would result in saving about a 1000 jobs in the US. Jobs are believed to have been behind Exim Bank's reversal of earlier decision of rejecting the arrangement.



Sunday, July 11, 2010

Prudent Borrower

12 july 2010

The Chinese produce 70% of global sex toys. Half the demand is from the US and 30% from Europe. Product prices ranges from pennies to $100. Revenue for the first 5 months of the year has crossed a $1 billion.

Presuming healthy margins, over 50%, $2 billion in revenue, and a disposition to lend money to its largest customer, Chinese sex toy savings could account for at least $500 million a year in US government bond buying.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

China LEI

The surprise is that the Conference Board compiles a leading economic indicator for China not that the revised number is 75% lower than expected

North American for markets down sharply

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Boomerang

Boomerang

The Republican victory in Massachusetts was the death knell for the President's health care reform.

The Supreme Court added insult to democratic angst in its 5-4 decision removing campaign finance caps for businesses under a novel interpretation of protected free speech and "censorship."

The knee and the jerk, and not in that particular order, was an economic response by the President's economic team to attack the structure, size, and activity of banks able to take leveraged risks today with shareholder and depositor money because the Clinton Administration repealed the Glass Steagall Act in 1999

GS separated banking and investment banking functions since the Crash of 1929 because banks proved incapable of housing both functions under one roof, or management, without running the economy over the cliff.

The unfortunate and next financial step will be the contraction of equity markets around the world in the short term, financial institutions comprise roughly 15% of the global market capitalization.

And in the longer term it will be difficult for governments to borrow money to maintain even scaled down stimulus packages because that borrowing relies on banks ability to maintain the price of already scorched assets on their balance sheets.

The natural political reaction is to throw out the incumbents facing mid term elections in ten months financed by a better heeled opposition with newly christened free speech protections for campaign contribution largess.


BBC News - US Supreme Court overturns campaign spending limit

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Idiot Savant

The Fin Min will take offsite inspiration from the producer and star of a movie, Three Idiots, who is feuding with the author of the book on which the film is based over plagiarism. To demonstrate social responsibility and sensitivity to the government austerity plan staff will be bussed to Faridabad for three days of events that will include yoga, reflection, and, well, idiots.

The producer to his credit will not charge for his efforts though he may consider a donation considering the ample subject matter for satire provided by government machinations daily. Though restricting the invitation to the Fin Min seems frugal.

Why not extend the experience to the Planning Commission, which applied for twice as much funding in this years budget than last exhausting the five year plan in three. Or Air India which cant pay salaries but pays Accenture 25 lacs a month to undo the integration plan, for which it already paid $2 million, and intends to hire McKinsey for $3 million to be advised that paying 10 million euros, already committed, to join Star Alliance may not be sensible if Frankfurt will no longer be a hub.

Three may be a gentle underestimate of the idiot quotient available.

Finance ministry seeks Idiot's tip to tackle Budget blues

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Praying for Rain

The PMO has found utility for an IMF trained economist in divining the future of the Indian economy. Soothsayer.

One of the few numbers released by the Indian government relied on by the markets is the food inflation number because it can be independently confirmed by the vegetable cart that arrives at each home in the country early every morning.

Food inflation in India is running at an annual rate of 20%. The RBI is in the business of fighting inflation and encouraging economic growth by controlling the price and quantity of money. An increase in the price of money, interest rates, to reduce actual and expected inflation tends to make mortgages and car loans more expensive reducing economic growth. Potato prices double and the RBI has to turn off the tap.

The RBI lowered short term rates by almost 4% in early 2009 to insure lots of cheap money to support the economy and increase the value of bonds held by banks to dress up balance sheets. The RBI declared its intent to increase the price of money in 2010, before the inflation numbers went from benign to bombastic, but that message apparently did not reached the PMO.

The Chief Economic Advisor believes that growth will be 8% in 2010 because the monsoon will be normal, +1% of GDP, and by 2012 growth will be 9% because the global economy will recover. The monsoon bet is interesting because last years monsoon was the worst in 37 years and from biblical times these cycles tend to last more than one year in a stretch.

3% of Indian growth in 2009 was provided by the government. Strip it out and the number is under 5% for the year, with inflation over 8%.

Future global economic growth is a function of rescuing 15 million US mortage holders from the negative equity on their loans for which the Treasury Secretary admits the solution is difficult without a second and unaffordable trip down Troubled Asset Relief.

The net claim number on India's foreing exchange reserves has doubled to $100 billion from $50 billion before calculation of the oild and fertilizer subsidies which happen off the balannce sheet.

The World Bank invested $4 billion to recapitalize Indian PSU banks, $1.5 billion in the infrastructure term lender IIFCL, and varied State government initiatives predicated on growth and close to the vest financial covenants from the government.

Praying for rain and the continuation of cheap money may be the only economic solution


ndia economy to grow 8 pct in FY '11, adviser sa ays-report- Hindustan Times