Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Suspended Animation
The animation will not suspend indefinitely
Ratings
The Chinese, though, have increased the purchase of US agency debt (fannie and freddie) to keep the US homeowners in their homes, leveraged, and willing to buy cheap Chinese stuff at Walmart. The Chinese had to because the Fed is rolling over maturing Agency payouts into Treasuries.
The Chinese downgrade, though viscerally pleasing, has no practical effect on global capital markets in 2010 but foreshadows say 2030 when the Chinese exchange dollar reserves for Martian development rights
Paper Mache
The Board voted to crush the par value of common shares from 1.00 to .10, expand common shares from 750 mm to 2 billion, and restate the corporate articles to effect a reverse stock split to meet the 1.00 nyse requirement
USG remains the majority shareholder and entry at .5 is 40% underwater at .3. Double up?
First BanCorp Announces Results of Special Stockholder’s Meeting - Business Wire - SunHerald.com
In the Still of the Night
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Unusually Uncertain
Rollover
Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at the current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. (1) The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.
No Money In the Hills
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Fannie at 40 cents?
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Run on the Fed
Monday, August 2, 2010
Slippery
Lack of subsidy hits oil marketing firms | TradingMarkets.com
SC asks HCs not to interfere with debt recovery proceedings-Finance-Economy-News-The Economic Times
Faced with the imminent threat of losing her mortgaged property, Ms Tondon challenged the decision of the bank.
Turning down the plea of the bank that the alternative remedy was available to the petitioner under section 17 of the SARFAESI Act, the high court passed the order restraining the lender from taking action. The order was challenged by the bank in the Supreme Court.
Ruling in favour of the bank’s plea, the apex court said the high court order had the effect of defeating the very object of the legislation enacted by Parliament for ensuring that there are no unwarranted impediments in the recovery of the debts due to banks, financial institutions and secured creditors.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
15c2-12
The SEC has a notice that requires issuers of municipal bonds to disclose "material" events.
The definition of "material" is left to the discretion of the issuer. Issuers have drawn down on bond insurance to meet principal and interest payments when property tax payments have been late.
Technically this "default" has not been considered "material" because the issuers view the draw on bond insurance as a temporary bridge loan. The issuers have repaid the insurers within 90 days but have not disclosed the use of insurance to investors through SEC filings.
The SEC has modified the disclosure language to require material event notices for "all unscheduled draws on credit enhancement facilities reflecting financial difficulties". The new disclosure requirement takes effect in December.
The modification is a distinction without a difference because the determination of "financial difficulties" is a bomb blast away from required disclosure.
Berkshire has written 90% less bond insurance year over year because the capital commitment does not justify the risk, unless it becomes clear that the federal government stands behind municipal debt.
Bullets in a Closed Economy
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Boule
The research has also revealed that Boule is the only gene known to be exclusively required for sperm production --from an insect to a mammal.
"This is the first clear evidence that suggests our ability to produce sperm is very ancient, probably originating at the dawn of animal evolution 600 million years ago. This finding suggests that all animal sperm production likely comes from a common prototype," lead scientist Prof Eugene Xu said.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Covering Shorts in a European Summer
FT.com / Markets / Insight - Debt shuffling will be a self-defeating exercise
Premium
Monday, July 19, 2010
Balance Sheet Shell Games
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Three G
Should be Higher
No demat accounts for Hindu gods-ET Cetera-News By Industry-News-The Economic Times
Friday, July 16, 2010
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Coal in the Hills
Sponsored by India-based Reliance Power, the mine and refinery (called the "Sasan project," named after a nearby village in the state of Madhya Pradesh) would emit more than 26 million tons of carbon dioxide per year -- more than all the direct emissions from Exim Bank's 2009 projects combined. Many additional co-pollutants would also be produced, including lead, arsenic, mercury, smog-causing nitrogen oxide, and acid-rain forming sulfur dioxide.
Three weeks ago, the Exim Bank's board rightly voted to reject this project due to the environmental damage it would cause. But Wisconsin-based Bucyrus, a company that will benefit from the deal, retaliated with a media offensive and major bout of political lobbying. Bucyrus claimed that it would not be able to sell its equipment to the project if Exim failed to provide the project with U.S.-taxpayer-backed loan guarantees. The timing was exquisite. Coincidently, President Obama visited Racine, Wisconsin, for a pre-scheduled town hall meeting the week after the Exim board's vote. If the president wanted to avoid an embarrassing scene, he'd have to strike a deal and backtrack on the Exim decision. Literally hours before Air Force One was scheduled to land in Wisconsin, Exim Bank invited Reliance Energy to resubmit its application.
According to Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle, President Obama's involvement was "absolutely critical" in producing the Bank's flip flop. But the president wasn't the only one involved; Bucyrus CEO Tim Sullivan gave props to Doyle as well as Senators Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold and Representatives Gwen Moore, Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner for pressuring Exim to change its mind.
China Property Market Beginning Collapse That May Hit Banks, Rogoff Says - Bloomberg
Bank Capital
China’s five largest state-controlled banks have announced plans to raise as much as $54.5 billion of capital by selling bonds and shares after they extended record loans last year to support a government-led stimulus plan.
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., which is in the midst of a $20.1 billion initial public offering in Shanghai and Hong Kong, told investors yesterday that real-estate loans are among the biggest risks facing the industry.
Weaker growth in China, as well as decisions by developed countries to tighten fiscal policy, may slow the global economic recovery, which Rogoff said is unlikely to slide into a so- called double-dip recession.
Rich nations will reduce their primary budget deficits, excluding interest payments, by 1.6 percentage points next year, the most since the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began keeping records in 1970, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists. The budget squeeze will lop 0.9 percentage point off growth in 2011.
US Exim guarantees loan for Reliance's Sasan project
Responding to green commitment from Reliance Anil Ambani group, the US Exim bank today gave a preliminary approval for $600 million in loan guarantees to the supplier to Rs 20,000 crore power project at Sasan in Madhya Pradesh.
The proposed estimated Rs 2,800 crore loan guarantee will support the sale and export by US firm Bucyrus International. The approval would result in saving about a 1000 jobs in the US. Jobs are believed to have been behind Exim Bank's reversal of earlier decision of rejecting the arrangement.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Prudent Borrower
The Chinese produce 70% of global sex toys. Half the demand is from the US and 30% from Europe. Product prices ranges from pennies to $100. Revenue for the first 5 months of the year has crossed a $1 billion.
Presuming healthy margins, over 50%, $2 billion in revenue, and a disposition to lend money to its largest customer, Chinese sex toy savings could account for at least $500 million a year in US government bond buying.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
China LEI
North American for markets down sharply
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Boomerang
The Republican victory in Massachusetts was the death knell for the President's health care reform.
The Supreme Court added insult to democratic angst in its 5-4 decision removing campaign finance caps for businesses under a novel interpretation of protected free speech and "censorship."
The knee and the jerk, and not in that particular order, was an economic response by the President's economic team to attack the structure, size, and activity of banks able to take leveraged risks today with shareholder and depositor money because the Clinton Administration repealed the Glass Steagall Act in 1999
GS separated banking and investment banking functions since the Crash of 1929 because banks proved incapable of housing both functions under one roof, or management, without running the economy over the cliff.
The unfortunate and next financial step will be the contraction of equity markets around the world in the short term, financial institutions comprise roughly 15% of the global market capitalization.
And in the longer term it will be difficult for governments to borrow money to maintain even scaled down stimulus packages because that borrowing relies on banks ability to maintain the price of already scorched assets on their balance sheets.
The natural political reaction is to throw out the incumbents facing mid term elections in ten months financed by a better heeled opposition with newly christened free speech protections for campaign contribution largess.
BBC News - US Supreme Court overturns campaign spending limit
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Idiot Savant
The producer to his credit will not charge for his efforts though he may consider a donation considering the ample subject matter for satire provided by government machinations daily. Though restricting the invitation to the Fin Min seems frugal.
Why not extend the experience to the Planning Commission, which applied for twice as much funding in this years budget than last exhausting the five year plan in three. Or Air India which cant pay salaries but pays Accenture 25 lacs a month to undo the integration plan, for which it already paid $2 million, and intends to hire McKinsey for $3 million to be advised that paying 10 million euros, already committed, to join Star Alliance may not be sensible if Frankfurt will no longer be a hub.
Three may be a gentle underestimate of the idiot quotient available.
Finance ministry seeks Idiot's tip to tackle Budget blues
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Praying for Rain
One of the few numbers released by the Indian government relied on by the markets is the food inflation number because it can be independently confirmed by the vegetable cart that arrives at each home in the country early every morning.
Food inflation in India is running at an annual rate of 20%. The RBI is in the business of fighting inflation and encouraging economic growth by controlling the price and quantity of money. An increase in the price of money, interest rates, to reduce actual and expected inflation tends to make mortgages and car loans more expensive reducing economic growth. Potato prices double and the RBI has to turn off the tap.
The RBI lowered short term rates by almost 4% in early 2009 to insure lots of cheap money to support the economy and increase the value of bonds held by banks to dress up balance sheets. The RBI declared its intent to increase the price of money in 2010, before the inflation numbers went from benign to bombastic, but that message apparently did not reached the PMO.
The Chief Economic Advisor believes that growth will be 8% in 2010 because the monsoon will be normal, +1% of GDP, and by 2012 growth will be 9% because the global economy will recover. The monsoon bet is interesting because last years monsoon was the worst in 37 years and from biblical times these cycles tend to last more than one year in a stretch.
3% of Indian growth in 2009 was provided by the government. Strip it out and the number is under 5% for the year, with inflation over 8%.
Future global economic growth is a function of rescuing 15 million US mortage holders from the negative equity on their loans for which the Treasury Secretary admits the solution is difficult without a second and unaffordable trip down Troubled Asset Relief.
The net claim number on India's foreing exchange reserves has doubled to $100 billion from $50 billion before calculation of the oild and fertilizer subsidies which happen off the balannce sheet.
The World Bank invested $4 billion to recapitalize Indian PSU banks, $1.5 billion in the infrastructure term lender IIFCL, and varied State government initiatives predicated on growth and close to the vest financial covenants from the government.
Praying for rain and the continuation of cheap money may be the only economic solution
ndia economy to grow 8 pct in FY '11, adviser sa ays-report- Hindustan Times